First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 24

Lokomotiv Plovdiv–CSKA 1948

0–5

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 5 March 2026 at 13:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.6% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'CSKA 1948Lucas Ryan (own goal)
42'CSKA 1948F. Krebs (assist: E. Franco)
50'CSKA 1948M. Diallo (assist: Frederic)
81'CSKA 1948E. Franco (penalty)
85'CSKA 1948A. Iliev (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lokomotiv Plovdiv		CSKA 1948
12	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
362	Passes	424
287	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.20 · CSKA 1948 1.15. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots Lokomotiv Plovdiv 12 · CSKA 1948 7; on target 2 and 4.

Referee

S. Arsov→

4.78

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.3%: “Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “CSKA 1948 to win” at 33.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 1.15 for CSKA 1948.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 950 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win36.3%

Draw30.0%

CSKA 1948 to win33.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Lokomotiv Plovdiv lead at half-time30.0%

Level at half-time46.2%

CSKA 1948 lead at half-time23.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Lokomotiv Plovdiv ahead or level76.2%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or CSKA 1948 ahead70.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 950 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 11Actual: 12
CSKA 1948: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 4Actual: 4
CSKA 1948: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lokomotiv Plovdiv score1.20

Attack: Lokomotiv Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals CSKA 1948 score1.15

Attack: CSKA 1948 score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–010.5%0–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.