First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 24

Cherno More Varna–Arda Kardzhali

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 4 March 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cherno More Varna		Arda Kardzhali
6	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	2
3	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	0
1	Offsides	4
55%	Possession	45%
404	Passes	358
298	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cherno More Varna 1.18 · Arda Kardzhali 0.90. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Cherno More Varna 6 · Arda Kardzhali 8; on target 2 and 2.
Cherno More Varna kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

K. Kolev→

5.41

yellows per match

0.56

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.7%: “Cherno More Varna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for Cherno More Varna, 0.90 for Arda Kardzhali.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (1X — Cherno More Varna win or draw).
These values were computed from 947 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cherno More Varna to win41.7%

Draw31.6%

Arda Kardzhali to win26.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time30.2%

Level at half-time46.0%

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time23.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Cherno More Varna ahead or level76.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Arda Kardzhali ahead69.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 947 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cherno More Varna: at least 11Actual: 12
Arda Kardzhali: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Cherno More Varna: at least 5
Arda Kardzhali: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cherno More Varna score1.18

Attack: Cherno More Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score0.90

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–014.1%0–012.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.