First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 24

Botev Plovdiv–Septemvri Sofia

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 3 March 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'Botev PlovdivFranklin Mascote
62'Botev PlovdivPedro Igor (assist: E. Rodriguez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Botev Plovdiv		Septemvri Sofia
23	Shots	7
9	Shots on target	1
14	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
4	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
506	Passes	351
430	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Plovdiv 1.56 · Septemvri Sofia 1.07. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Botev Plovdiv 23 · Septemvri Sofia 7; on target 9 and 1.
Botev Plovdiv kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

T. Kirov→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.0%: “Botev Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Botev Plovdiv, 1.07 for Septemvri Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (1X — Botev Plovdiv win or draw).
These values were computed from 946 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Plovdiv to win48.0%

Draw27.2%

Septemvri Sofia to win24.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Botev Plovdiv lead at half-time30.0%

Level at half-time47.8%

Septemvri Sofia lead at half-time22.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Plovdiv ahead or level77.8%

12 — not level at half-time52.2%

X2 — level or Septemvri Sofia ahead70.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 946 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Plovdiv: at least 10Actual: 8
Septemvri Sofia: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Botev Plovdiv: at least 5Actual: 4
Septemvri Sofia: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Plovdiv score1.56

Attack: Botev Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Septemvri Sofia concede 40% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Septemvri Sofia score1.07

Attack: Septemvri Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–010.4%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.