First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 24
HT 0–0
| Spartak Varna | Montana | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 9 | Shots inside the box | 2 |
| 1 | Goalkeeper saves | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 49% | Possession | 51% |
| 415 | Passes | 373 |
| 332 | Accurate passes |
5.51
yellows per match
0.28
reds per match
85
matches of data
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →
| 291 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
|---|
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
|---|
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
|---|
The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.
When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →
These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (31.4%).
First-half double chance
These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 944 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.
Fouls
Corners
These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.
The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.
The model gives a probability below the baseline (43.4%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.
Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.
Attack: Spartak Varna score below the league average (20% fewer).
Opponent's defence: Montana's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).
Attack: Montana score below the league average (29% fewer).
Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).
A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.
Ratings were computed from 944 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 23 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.