First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 23

Septemvri Sofia–CSKA Sofia

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 12%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'Septemvri SofiaBertrand Fourrier (assist: R. Schouten)
90'Septemvri SofiaN. Fontaine

Match statistics

Match statistics
Septemvri Sofia		CSKA Sofia
10	Shots	21
4	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
0	Offsides	3
32%	Possession	68%
229	Passes	527
170	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Septemvri Sofia 0.76 · CSKA Sofia 1.98. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Septemvri Sofia 10 · CSKA Sofia 21; on target 4 and 5.
CSKA Sofia kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

N. Popov→

4.66

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.4%: “CSKA Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.76 for Septemvri Sofia, 1.98 for CSKA Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 87.9% (X2 — draw or CSKA Sofia win).
These values were computed from 941 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Septemvri Sofia to win12.1%

Draw21.5%

CSKA Sofia to win66.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Septemvri Sofia lead at half-time15.1%

Level at half-time45.0%

CSKA Sofia lead at half-time39.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Septemvri Sofia ahead or level60.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or CSKA Sofia ahead84.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 941 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Septemvri Sofia: at least 10Actual: 15
CSKA Sofia: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Septemvri Sofia: at least 3Actual: 2
CSKA Sofia: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Septemvri Sofia score0.76

Attack: Septemvri Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: CSKA Sofia concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals CSKA Sofia score1.98

Attack: CSKA Sofia score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Septemvri Sofia concede 45% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.98 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–213.0%0–112.1%1–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.