First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 23

Botev Vratsa–Beroe

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Botev Vratsa		Beroe
14	Shots	4
1	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
68%	Possession	32%
592	Passes	281
477	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Vratsa 1.28 · Beroe 0.88. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Botev Vratsa 14 · Beroe 4; on target 1 and 2.
Botev Vratsa kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

V. Chinkov→

5.36

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.0%: “Botev Vratsa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Botev Vratsa, 0.88 for Beroe.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (1X — Botev Vratsa win or draw).
These values were computed from 939 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Vratsa to win45.0%

Draw30.5%

Beroe to win24.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time22.3%

Level at half-time53.8%

Beroe lead at half-time24.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa ahead or level76.0%

12 — not level at half-time46.2%

X2 — level or Beroe ahead77.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 939 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Vratsa: at least 11Actual: 9
Beroe: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Botev Vratsa: at least 5Actual: 9
Beroe: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Vratsa score1.28

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beroe concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beroe score0.88

Attack: Beroe score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–014.1%0–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.