First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 23

Montana–Botev Plovdiv

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 27 February 2026 at 13:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.1% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Montana		Botev Plovdiv
12	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
31%	Possession	69%
265	Passes	614
182	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Montana 1.09 · Botev Plovdiv 1.12. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Montana 12 · Botev Plovdiv 16; on target 2 and 3.
Botev Plovdiv kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

D. Draganov→

4.19

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.0%: “Botev Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “Montana to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Montana, 1.12 for Botev Plovdiv.
The highest double chance value is 68.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 937 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Montana to win33.9%

Draw31.1%

Botev Plovdiv to win35.0%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 2,630 of 8,432 predictions were correct (31.2%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Montana lead at half-time16.6%

Level at half-time45.8%

Botev Plovdiv lead at half-time37.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Montana ahead or level62.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Botev Plovdiv ahead83.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 937 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Montana: at least 10Actual: 5
Botev Plovdiv: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Montana: at least 4Actual: 1
Botev Plovdiv: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Montana score1.09

Attack: Montana score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Botev Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Botev Plovdiv score1.12

Attack: Botev Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Montana's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–111.4%1–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.