First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 23

Arda Kardzhali–Spartak Varna

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 27 February 2026 at 10:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena Arda, Kerdjali

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'Spartak VarnaDimo Krastev · red card
56'Arda KardzhaliA. Vutov (assist: B. Karagaren)
77'Arda KardzhaliV. Velev · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arda Kardzhali		Spartak Varna
15	Shots	4
7	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
70%	Possession	30%
605	Passes	256
545	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arda Kardzhali 1.67 · Spartak Varna 0.78. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Arda Kardzhali 15 · Spartak Varna 4; on target 7 and 2.
Arda Kardzhali kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

G. Ginchev→

5.20

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.7%: “Arda Kardzhali to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Arda Kardzhali, 0.78 for Spartak Varna.
The highest double chance value is 84.2% (1X — Arda Kardzhali win or draw).
These values were computed from 936 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arda Kardzhali to win58.7%

Draw25.5%

Spartak Varna to win15.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time48.7%

Level at half-time40.0%

Spartak Varna lead at half-time11.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Arda Kardzhali ahead or level88.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Spartak Varna ahead51.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 936 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arda Kardzhali: at least 11Actual: 12
Spartak Varna: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Arda Kardzhali: at least 6
Spartak Varna: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.67

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Spartak Varna score0.78

Attack: Spartak Varna score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.8%1–112.8%2–012.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.