First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 22

Dobrudzha–Montana

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Druzhba, Dobrich

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'DobrudzhaValdumar (penalty)
63'DobrudzhaVasco Oliveira · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dobrudzha		Montana
5	Shots	8
1	Shots on target	3
3	Shots inside the box	4
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	8
1	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
395	Passes	438
314	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dobrudzha 1.17 · Montana 0.94. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Dobrudzha 5 · Montana 8; on target 1 and 3.

Referee

D. Dimitrov→

4.04

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.1%: “Dobrudzha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Dobrudzha, 0.94 for Montana.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (1X — Dobrudzha win or draw).
These values were computed from 930 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dobrudzha to win40.1%

Draw31.6%

Montana to win28.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Dobrudzha lead at half-time36.7%

Level at half-time45.1%

Montana lead at half-time18.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Dobrudzha ahead or level81.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Montana ahead63.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 930 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dobrudzha: at least 11Actual: 6
Montana: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Dobrudzha: at least 5Actual: 4
Montana: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dobrudzha score1.17

Attack: Dobrudzha score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Montana's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Montana score0.94

Attack: Montana score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dobrudzha's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–013.4%0–011.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.