First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 22

Cherno More Varna–Botev Vratsa

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 20 February 2026 at 15:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cherno More Varna		Botev Vratsa
11	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	6
3	Shots inside the box	6
6	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
65%	Possession	35%
514	Passes	275
405	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cherno More Varna 1.37 · Botev Vratsa 0.69. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Cherno More Varna 11 · Botev Vratsa 10; on target 5 and 6.
Cherno More Varna kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

V. Zhelezov→

4.59

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.2%: “Cherno More Varna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Cherno More Varna, 0.69 for Botev Vratsa.
The highest double chance value is 82.6% (1X — Cherno More Varna win or draw).
These values were computed from 929 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cherno More Varna to win53.2%

Draw29.4%

Botev Vratsa to win17.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time35.3%

Level at half-time50.5%

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time14.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Cherno More Varna ahead or level85.8%

12 — not level at half-time49.5%

X2 — level or Botev Vratsa ahead64.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 929 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cherno More Varna: at least 11Actual: 11
Botev Vratsa: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Cherno More Varna: at least 6Actual: 2
Botev Vratsa: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cherno More Varna score1.37

Attack: Cherno More Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Botev Vratsa score0.69

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–017.1%1–113.8%0–012.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.