First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 21

Botev Vratsa–Dobrudzha

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 16 February 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Botev Vratsa		Dobrudzha
10	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	0
6	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
511	Passes	325
406	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Vratsa 1.19 · Dobrudzha 0.95. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Botev Vratsa 10 · Dobrudzha 5; on target 4 and 0.
Botev Vratsa kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

K. Kolev→

5.42

yellows per match

0.58

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Botev Vratsa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Botev Vratsa, 0.95 for Dobrudzha.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (1X — Botev Vratsa win or draw).
These values were computed from 928 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Vratsa to win40.9%

Draw31.3%

Dobrudzha to win27.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time29.9%

Level at half-time49.6%

Dobrudzha lead at half-time20.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa ahead or level79.5%

12 — not level at half-time50.4%

X2 — level or Dobrudzha ahead70.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 928 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Vratsa: at least 11Actual: 15
Dobrudzha: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Botev Vratsa: at least 4Actual: 7
Dobrudzha: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Vratsa score1.19

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dobrudzha's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dobrudzha score0.95

Attack: Dobrudzha score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–013.3%0–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.