First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 21

Ludogorets–Beroe

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 February 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'BeroeA. Salido Tajero (assist: Ismael Ferrer)
83'LudogoretsKwadwo Duah (assist: I. Chochev)
87'LudogoretsPetar Stanić (assist: Caio Vidal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ludogorets		Beroe
30	Shots	6
10	Shots on target	4
20	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	10
16	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
70%	Possession	30%
584	Passes	214
510	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ludogorets 2.26 · Beroe 0.47. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Ludogorets 30 · Beroe 6; on target 10 and 4.
Ludogorets kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

V. Minev→

3.32

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.4%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.26 for Ludogorets, 0.47 for Beroe.
The highest double chance value is 94.9% (1X — Ludogorets win or draw).
These values were computed from 925 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ludogorets to win79.4%

Draw15.5%

Beroe to win5.1%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ludogorets lead at half-time43.8%

Level at half-time43.2%

Beroe lead at half-time13.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Ludogorets ahead or level87.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Beroe ahead56.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 925 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ludogorets: at least 9Actual: 14
Beroe: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Ludogorets: at least 7Actual: 16
Beroe: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ludogorets score2.26

Attack: Ludogorets score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: Beroe concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.26 goals.

How many goals Beroe score0.47

Attack: Beroe score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–017.5%1–014.3%3–013.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.