First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 20

Lokomotiv Sofia–Ludogorets

1–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Lokomotiv SofiaS. Delev
46'LudogoretsI. Chochev (assist: B. Tekpetey)
59'LudogoretsPetar Stanić (penalty)
75'Lokomotiv SofiaR. Bidounga · red card
84'LudogoretsRwan Cruz (assist: Petar Stanić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lokomotiv Sofia		Ludogorets
4	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
2	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	7
2	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
366	Passes	353
294	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lokomotiv Sofia 0.76 · Ludogorets 1.68. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Lokomotiv Sofia 4 · Ludogorets 13; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

D. Draganov→

4.26

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.6%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.76 for Lokomotiv Sofia, 1.68 for Ludogorets.
The highest double chance value is 84.8% (X2 — draw or Ludogorets win).
These values were computed from 916 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lokomotiv Sofia to win15.2%

Draw25.2%

Ludogorets to win59.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Lokomotiv Sofia lead at half-time18.7%

Level at half-time44.7%

Ludogorets lead at half-time36.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Lokomotiv Sofia ahead or level63.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Ludogorets ahead81.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 916 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 11Actual: 15
Ludogorets: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 3Actual: 1
Ludogorets: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lokomotiv Sofia score0.76

Attack: Lokomotiv Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ludogorets score1.68

Attack: Ludogorets score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Sofia's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–114.1%0–212.7%1–112.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.