First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 19

Botev Vratsa–Montana

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 9 December 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

70'MontanaV. Sakor · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Vratsa 1.25 · Montana 0.98. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

D. Draganov→

4.25

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.9%: “Botev Vratsa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Botev Vratsa, 0.98 for Montana.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (1X — Botev Vratsa win or draw).
These values were computed from 911 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Vratsa to win41.9%

Draw30.5%

Montana to win27.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa win or draw72.3%

12 — any result other than a draw69.5%

X2 — draw or Montana win58.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time35.9%

Level at half-time46.5%

Montana lead at half-time17.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa ahead or level82.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.5%

X2 — level or Montana ahead64.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 911 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Vratsa: at least 11
Montana: at least 11

Corners

Botev Vratsa: at least 4
Montana: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Vratsa score1.25

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Montana concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Montana score0.98

Attack: Montana score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–012.7%0–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.