First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 19

CSKA 1948–Dobrudzha

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 8 December 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
CSKA 1948		Dobrudzha
12	Shots	9
1	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
454	Passes	446
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA 1948 1.94 · Dobrudzha 0.72. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots CSKA 1948 12 · Dobrudzha 9; on target 1 and 3.

Referee

S. Arsov→

4.69

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.7%: “CSKA 1948 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for CSKA 1948, 0.72 for Dobrudzha.
The highest double chance value is 88.4% (1X — CSKA 1948 win or draw).
These values were computed from 909 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA 1948 to win66.7%

Draw21.7%

Dobrudzha to win11.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,095 of 4,439 predictions were correct (47.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 win or draw88.4%

12 — any result other than a draw78.3%

X2 — draw or Dobrudzha win33.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

CSKA 1948 lead at half-time56.6%

Level at half-time35.5%

Dobrudzha lead at half-time7.9%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 ahead or level92.1%

12 — not level at half-time64.5%

X2 — level or Dobrudzha ahead43.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 909 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA 1948: at least 10Actual: 12
Dobrudzha: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

CSKA 1948: at least 5Actual: 4
Dobrudzha: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA 1948 score1.94

Attack: CSKA 1948 score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Dobrudzha concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dobrudzha score0.72

Attack: Dobrudzha score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.6%1–012.9%1–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 909 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 18 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.