First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 18

Botev Vratsa–Spartak Varna

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 4 December 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

76'Botev VratsaJ. Gallegos
79'Botev VratsaD. Evtimov · red card
90'Botev VratsaA. Stoyanov

Match statistics

Match statistics
Botev Vratsa		Spartak Varna
19	Shots	2
7	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	0
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
457	Passes	247
387	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Vratsa 1.27 · Spartak Varna 1.04. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Botev Vratsa 19 · Spartak Varna 2; on target 7 and 1.
Botev Vratsa kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Markov→

2.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Botev Vratsa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Botev Vratsa, 1.04 for Spartak Varna.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (1X — Botev Vratsa win or draw).
These values were computed from 902 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Vratsa to win40.9%

Draw30.1%

Spartak Varna to win29.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time29.7%

Level at half-time47.8%

Spartak Varna lead at half-time22.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa ahead or level77.6%

12 — not level at half-time52.2%

X2 — level or Spartak Varna ahead70.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 902 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Vratsa: at least 11Actual: 10
Spartak Varna: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Botev Vratsa: at least 5
Spartak Varna: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Vratsa score1.27

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Spartak Varna score1.04

Attack: Spartak Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–011.9%0–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.