First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 18

Arda Kardzhali–Botev Plovdiv

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 2 December 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena Arda, Kerdjali

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arda Kardzhali		Botev Plovdiv
15	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
64%	Possession	36%
648	Passes	340
573	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arda Kardzhali 1.55 · Botev Plovdiv 0.94. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Arda Kardzhali 15 · Botev Plovdiv 6; on target 5 and 1.
Arda Kardzhali kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

D. Draganov→

4.29

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “Arda Kardzhali to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Arda Kardzhali, 0.94 for Botev Plovdiv.
The highest double chance value is 78.5% (1X — Arda Kardzhali win or draw).
These values were computed from 897 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arda Kardzhali to win51.2%

Draw27.3%

Botev Plovdiv to win21.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,613 of 7,010 predictions were correct (51.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Arda Kardzhali win or draw78.5%

12 — any result other than a draw72.7%

X2 — draw or Botev Plovdiv win48.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time41.0%

Level at half-time41.9%

Botev Plovdiv lead at half-time17.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Arda Kardzhali ahead or level82.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Botev Plovdiv ahead59.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 897 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arda Kardzhali: at least 10Actual: 8
Botev Plovdiv: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

Arda Kardzhali: at least 4Actual: 8
Botev Plovdiv: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals45.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,317 of 4,968 predictions were correct (46.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.55

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Botev Plovdiv score0.94

Attack: Botev Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–012.1%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 897 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 106 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.