First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 17

Lokomotiv Plovdiv–Montana

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 28 November 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lokomotiv Plovdiv		Montana
7	Shots	7
0	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	4
5	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
403	Passes	294
311	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.50 · Montana 0.90. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Lokomotiv Plovdiv 7 · Montana 7; on target 0 and 2.

Referee

M. Pavlov→

5.67

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.0%: “Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 0.90 for Montana.
The highest double chance value is 78.8% (1X — Lokomotiv Plovdiv win or draw).
These values were computed from 889 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win51.0%

Draw27.8%

Montana to win21.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Lokomotiv Plovdiv lead at half-time61.3%

Level at half-time33.8%

Montana lead at half-time4.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Lokomotiv Plovdiv ahead or level95.2%

12 — not level at half-time66.2%

X2 — level or Montana ahead38.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 889 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 13Actual: 13
Montana: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 4Actual: 6
Montana: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lokomotiv Plovdiv score1.50

Attack: Lokomotiv Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Montana concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Montana score0.90

Attack: Montana score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–012.9%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.