First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 16

Botev Vratsa–Slavia Sofia

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 24 November 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

81'Slavia SofiaI. Solet (assist: E. Stoev)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Botev Vratsa		Slavia Sofia
17	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
518	Passes	353
423	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Vratsa 1.10 · Slavia Sofia 1.21. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Botev Vratsa 17 · Slavia Sofia 9; on target 4 and 2.
Botev Vratsa kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

V. Zhelezov→

4.63

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.5%: “Slavia Sofia to win”. Second comes “Botev Vratsa to win” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Botev Vratsa, 1.21 for Slavia Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 69.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 887 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Vratsa to win32.1%

Draw30.3%

Slavia Sofia to win37.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time23.9%

Level at half-time48.0%

Slavia Sofia lead at half-time28.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa ahead or level71.9%

12 — not level at half-time52.0%

X2 — level or Slavia Sofia ahead76.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 887 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Vratsa: at least 10Actual: 9
Slavia Sofia: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

Botev Vratsa: at least 4Actual: 8
Slavia Sofia: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Vratsa score1.10

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slavia Sofia's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slavia Sofia score1.21

Attack: Slavia Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%0–111.2%1–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.