First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 16

Cherno More Varna–Lokomotiv Sofia

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Lokomotiv SofiaR. Bidounga (assist: S. Delev)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cherno More Varna		Lokomotiv Sofia
11	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	6
3	Shots inside the box	4
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	6
2	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
509	Passes	258
401	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cherno More Varna 1.53 · Lokomotiv Sofia 0.71. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Cherno More Varna 11 · Lokomotiv Sofia 11; on target 2 and 6.
Cherno More Varna kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

G. Ginchev→

5.20

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.0%: “Cherno More Varna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Cherno More Varna, 0.71 for Lokomotiv Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 84.1% (1X — Cherno More Varna win or draw).
These values were computed from 882 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cherno More Varna to win57.0%

Draw27.1%

Lokomotiv Sofia to win15.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time46.8%

Level at half-time43.1%

Lokomotiv Sofia lead at half-time10.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Cherno More Varna ahead or level89.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Sofia ahead53.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 882 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cherno More Varna: at least 10Actual: 11
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Cherno More Varna: at least 5Actual: 10
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cherno More Varna score1.53

Attack: Cherno More Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Sofia's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Sofia score0.71

Attack: Lokomotiv Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.8%1–113.2%2–012.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.