First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 15

Slavia Sofia–Montana

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Slavia, Sofia

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

68'MontanaP. Ejike (assist: Vitinho)
87'Slavia SofiaY. Guermouche (assist: V. Medved)
90'Slavia SofiaR. Raychev (assist: I. Minchev)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slavia Sofia		Montana
16	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
488	Passes	319
399	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slavia Sofia 1.54 · Montana 0.89. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Slavia Sofia 16 · Montana 11; on target 6 and 1.
Slavia Sofia kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

N. Popov→

4.71

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.4%: “Slavia Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Slavia Sofia, 0.89 for Montana.
The highest double chance value is 79.7% (1X — Slavia Sofia win or draw).
These values were computed from 877 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slavia Sofia to win52.4%

Draw27.3%

Montana to win20.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Slavia Sofia lead at half-time53.8%

Level at half-time37.0%

Montana lead at half-time9.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Slavia Sofia ahead or level90.9%

12 — not level at half-time63.0%

X2 — level or Montana ahead46.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 877 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slavia Sofia: at least 13Actual: 10
Montana: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Slavia Sofia: at least 4Actual: 10
Montana: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slavia Sofia score1.54

Attack: Slavia Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Montana's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Montana score0.89

Attack: Montana score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slavia Sofia's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–012.8%2–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.