First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 15
HT 0–2
| Spartak Varna | Septemvri Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 10 | Shots inside the box | 7 |
| 5 | Goalkeeper saves | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 43% | Possession | 57% |
| 404 | Passes | 468 |
| 311 | Accurate passes |
5.33
yellows per match
0.22
reds per match
9
matches of data
9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →
| 390 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
|---|
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
|---|
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
|---|
The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.
When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →
These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.5%).
First-half double chance
These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 872 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.
Fouls
Corners
These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.
When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →
The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.
Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.
Attack: Spartak Varna score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Septemvri Sofia concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).
Attack: Septemvri Sofia score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).
A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.
Ratings were computed from 872 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 74 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.