First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 14

Cherno More Varna–Ludogorets

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 15:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cherno More Varna 1.07 · Ludogorets 1.18. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

Ventsislav Mitrev, Bulgaria→

5.00

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.5%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “Cherno More Varna to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for Cherno More Varna, 1.18 for Ludogorets.
The highest double chance value is 69.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 869 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cherno More Varna to win31.7%

Draw30.8%

Ludogorets to win37.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time32.6%

Level at half-time46.2%

Ludogorets lead at half-time21.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Cherno More Varna ahead or level78.8%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Ludogorets ahead67.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 869 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cherno More Varna: at least 11
Ludogorets: at least 10

Corners

Cherno More Varna: at least 4
Ludogorets: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cherno More Varna score1.07

Attack: Cherno More Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ludogorets score1.18

Attack: Ludogorets score 50% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.18 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%0–111.7%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.