First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 14

Dobrudzha–Spartak Varna

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 10:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Druzhba, Dobrich

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'DobrudzhaTomás Silva (assist: Matheus Leoni)
79'DobrudzhaI. Mihaylov (assist: Lucas Cardoso Soares)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dobrudzha 1.08 · Spartak Varna 1.26. On the pitch: 2-0.

Referee

Volen Chinkov, Bulgaria→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Spartak Varna to win”. Second comes “Dobrudzha to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for Dobrudzha, 1.26 for Spartak Varna.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 865 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dobrudzha to win30.5%

Draw30.0%

Spartak Varna to win39.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Dobrudzha lead at half-time18.6%

Level at half-time44.1%

Spartak Varna lead at half-time37.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Dobrudzha ahead or level62.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Spartak Varna ahead81.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 865 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dobrudzha: at least 11
Spartak Varna: at least 11

Corners

Dobrudzha: at least 6
Spartak Varna: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dobrudzha score1.08

Attack: Dobrudzha score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Spartak Varna score1.26

Attack: Spartak Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dobrudzha concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–111.3%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.