First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 13

CSKA Sofia–Beroe

5–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'CSKA SofiaP. Panayotov (assist: Pastor)
45'CSKA SofiaI. Pittas (assist: J. Eto'o)
48'CSKA SofiaI. Iliev (assist: Pastor)
52'CSKA SofiaI. Pittas (assist: P. Panayotov)
59'CSKA SofiaL. Godoy
87'BeroeIsmael Ferrer (assist: Nene)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA Sofia 1.61 · Beroe 0.72. On the pitch: 5-1.

Referee

Nikola Popov, Bulgaria→

6.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.0%: “CSKA Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for CSKA Sofia, 0.72 for Beroe.
The highest double chance value is 85.0% (1X — CSKA Sofia win or draw).
These values were computed from 863 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA Sofia to win59.0%

Draw26.0%

Beroe to win15.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 2–0

CSKA Sofia lead at half-time36.6%

Level at half-time47.0%

Beroe lead at half-time16.4%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA Sofia ahead or level83.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.0%

X2 — level or Beroe ahead63.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 863 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA Sofia: at least 10
Beroe: at least 11

Corners

CSKA Sofia: at least 6
Beroe: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA Sofia score1.61

Attack: CSKA Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beroe's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beroe score0.72

Attack: Beroe score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: CSKA Sofia concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.2%2–013.0%1–112.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.