First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 13

Spartak Varna–Botev Plovdiv

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 24 October 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Spartak, Varna

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Spartak VarnaG. Stojanovski (assist: Berna)
42'Botev PlovdivS. Tsonov (assist: Nikolay Minkov)
50'Spartak VarnaBerna (assist: G. Stojanovski)
68'Botev PlovdivA. Oko-Flex
77'Spartak VarnaBerna (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Spartak Varna		Botev Plovdiv
12	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
326	Passes	362
267	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Spartak Varna 1.34 · Botev Plovdiv 1.03. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Spartak Varna 12 · Botev Plovdiv 13; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

Georgi Dimitrov, Bulgaria→

5.75

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “Spartak Varna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Spartak Varna, 1.03 for Botev Plovdiv.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (1X — Spartak Varna win or draw).
These values were computed from 858 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spartak Varna to win43.1%

Draw29.4%

Botev Plovdiv to win27.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Spartak Varna lead at half-time36.0%

Level at half-time44.9%

Botev Plovdiv lead at half-time19.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Spartak Varna ahead or level81.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Botev Plovdiv ahead64.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 858 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Spartak Varna: at least 10Actual: 12
Botev Plovdiv: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Spartak Varna: at least 4Actual: 2
Botev Plovdiv: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Spartak Varna score1.34

Attack: Spartak Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Botev Plovdiv score1.03

Attack: Botev Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–011.7%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.