First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 12

Cherno More Varna–Levski Sofia

1–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 October 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Cherno More VarnaC. Sidney
55'Levski SofiaM. Sangare (assist: M. Soula)
65'Levski SofiaM. Sangare (assist: B. Rupanov)
90'Levski SofiaB. Rupanov (assist: Rildo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cherno More Varna		Levski Sofia
17	Shots	17
11	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	13
4	Goalkeeper saves	10
8	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
312	Passes	313
216	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cherno More Varna 0.91 · Levski Sofia 1.07. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Cherno More Varna 17 · Levski Sofia 17; on target 11 and 7.

Referee

Vasil Minev, Bulgaria→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.9%: “Levski Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.91 for Cherno More Varna, 1.07 for Levski Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (X2 — draw or Levski Sofia win).
These values were computed from 853 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cherno More Varna to win29.3%

Draw32.8%

Levski Sofia to win37.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time24.9%

Level at half-time47.6%

Levski Sofia lead at half-time27.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Cherno More Varna ahead or level72.5%

12 — not level at half-time52.4%

X2 — level or Levski Sofia ahead75.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 853 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cherno More Varna: at least 12Actual: 11
Levski Sofia: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Cherno More Varna: at least 3Actual: 8
Levski Sofia: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cherno More Varna score0.91

Attack: Cherno More Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levski Sofia concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levski Sofia score1.07

Attack: Levski Sofia score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.07 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%0–114.0%0–013.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.