First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 12

Ludogorets–Spartak Varna

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 18%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'Spartak VarnaXande (assist: G. Stojanovski)
50'LudogoretsPetar Stanić (assist: I. Chochev)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ludogorets		Spartak Varna
21	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
547	Passes	314
461	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ludogorets 2.08 · Spartak Varna 0.51. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Ludogorets 21 · Spartak Varna 10; on target 4 and 3.
Ludogorets kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Lyuboslav Lyubomirov, Bulgaria→

5.33

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.1%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.08 for Ludogorets, 0.51 for Spartak Varna.
The highest double chance value is 93.3% (1X — Ludogorets win or draw).
These values were computed from 851 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ludogorets to win75.1%

Draw18.1%

Spartak Varna to win6.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Ludogorets lead at half-time55.3%

Level at half-time38.3%

Spartak Varna lead at half-time6.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Ludogorets ahead or level93.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Spartak Varna ahead44.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 851 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ludogorets: at least 9Actual: 12
Spartak Varna: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Ludogorets: at least 6Actual: 7
Spartak Varna: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ludogorets score2.08

Attack: Ludogorets score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Spartak Varna score0.51

Attack: Spartak Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–017.0%1–015.1%3–011.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.