First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 12

Lokomotiv Plovdiv–Botev Vratsa

3–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Friday, 17 October 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Lokomotiv PlovdivJ. Perea (assist: P. Umarbayev)
17'Lokomotiv PlovdivJ. Perea
19'Lokomotiv PlovdivJ. Lamy (assist: C. Itu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lokomotiv Plovdiv		Botev Vratsa
12	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
389	Passes	516
310	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.29 · Botev Vratsa 0.87. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Lokomotiv Plovdiv 12 · Botev Vratsa 14; on target 7 and 1.
Botev Vratsa kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Todor Nedyalkov Kirov, Bulgaria→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.8%: “Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 0.87 for Botev Vratsa.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (1X — Lokomotiv Plovdiv win or draw).
These values were computed from 849 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win45.8%

Draw30.4%

Botev Vratsa to win23.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Lokomotiv Plovdiv lead at half-time31.0%

Level at half-time48.7%

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time20.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Lokomotiv Plovdiv ahead or level79.7%

12 — not level at half-time51.3%

X2 — level or Botev Vratsa ahead69.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 849 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 13Actual: 12
Botev Vratsa: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 4Actual: 5
Botev Vratsa: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lokomotiv Plovdiv score1.29

Attack: Lokomotiv Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Botev Vratsa score0.87

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–014.3%0–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.