First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 11

Montana–Cherno More Varna

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 14:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Cherno More VarnaD. Tonev
34'Cherno More VarnaC. Sidney (assist: D. Tonev)
57'MontanaI. Kokonov
79'Cherno More VarnaG. Lazarov (assist: Phellipe)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Montana		Cherno More Varna
12	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
1	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
307	Passes	430
234	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Montana 0.82 · Cherno More Varna 1.33. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Montana 12 · Cherno More Varna 10; on target 5 and 7.
Cherno More Varna kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Georgi Dimitrov, Bulgaria→

6.00

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Cherno More Varna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.82 for Montana, 1.33 for Cherno More Varna.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (X2 — draw or Cherno More Varna win).
These values were computed from 844 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Montana to win21.9%

Draw30.0%

Cherno More Varna to win48.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Montana lead at half-time14.9%

Level at half-time44.3%

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time40.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Montana ahead or level59.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Cherno More Varna ahead85.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 844 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Montana: at least 11Actual: 11
Cherno More Varna: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Montana: at least 4Actual: 1
Cherno More Varna: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Montana score0.82

Attack: Montana score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cherno More Varna score1.33

Attack: Cherno More Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Montana's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–114.9%1–114.7%0–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.