First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 10
HT 1–0
5.71
yellows per match
0.29
reds per match
7
matches of data
7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →
When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →
These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).
First-half double chance
These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 836 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.
Fouls
Corners
These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.
When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →
The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.
Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.
Attack: Spartak Varna score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Slavia Sofia's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).
Attack: Slavia Sofia score above the league average (19% more).
Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).
A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.
Ratings were computed from 836 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 69 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.