First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 9

Botev Vratsa–CSKA Sofia

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 22 September 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'CSKA SofiaI. Pittas
75'Botev VratsaD. Genov (assist: J. Gallegos)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Vratsa 0.82 · CSKA Sofia 1.44. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

Nikola Popov, Bulgaria→

6.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.6%: “CSKA Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.82 for Botev Vratsa, 1.44 for CSKA Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 80.1% (X2 — draw or CSKA Sofia win).
These values were computed from 831 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Vratsa to win19.9%

Draw28.5%

CSKA Sofia to win51.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time23.3%

Level at half-time49.1%

CSKA Sofia lead at half-time27.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa ahead or level72.4%

12 — not level at half-time50.9%

X2 — level or CSKA Sofia ahead76.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 831 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Vratsa: at least 11
CSKA Sofia: at least 11

Corners

Botev Vratsa: at least 3
CSKA Sofia: at least 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Vratsa score0.82

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: CSKA Sofia concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals CSKA Sofia score1.44

Attack: CSKA Sofia score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–114.5%1–114.1%0–211.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.