First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 9

Levski Sofia–Ludogorets

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 19 September 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levski Sofia 1.24 · Ludogorets 0.95. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

Radoslav Gidzhenov, Bulgaria→

5.33

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.3%: “Levski Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Levski Sofia, 0.95 for Ludogorets.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (1X — Levski Sofia win or draw).
These values were computed from 825 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levski Sofia to win42.3%

Draw30.7%

Ludogorets to win26.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Levski Sofia lead at half-time33.8%

Level at half-time46.6%

Ludogorets lead at half-time19.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Levski Sofia ahead or level80.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or Ludogorets ahead66.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 825 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levski Sofia: at least 11
Ludogorets: at least 10

Corners

Levski Sofia: at least 5
Ludogorets: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levski Sofia score1.24

Attack: Levski Sofia score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.24 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Ludogorets score0.95

Attack: Ludogorets score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: Levski Sofia concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.95 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–013.2%0–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.