First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 8

Lokomotiv Plovdiv–Ludogorets

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 September 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Lokomotiv PlovdivC. Itu (assist: P. Umarbayev)
44'Lokomotiv PlovdivIvaylo Ivanov · red card
90'LudogoretsPetar Stanić

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.78 · Ludogorets 1.43. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

Georgi Dimitrov, Bulgaria→

6.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.78 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 1.43 for Ludogorets.
The highest double chance value is 80.9% (X2 — draw or Ludogorets win).
These values were computed from 819 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win19.1%

Draw28.6%

Ludogorets to win52.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Lokomotiv Plovdiv lead at half-time14.8%

Level at half-time46.0%

Ludogorets lead at half-time39.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Lokomotiv Plovdiv ahead or level60.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Ludogorets ahead85.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 819 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 12
Ludogorets: at least 9

Corners

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 3
Ludogorets: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lokomotiv Plovdiv score0.78

Attack: Lokomotiv Plovdiv score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ludogorets score1.43

Attack: Ludogorets score 50% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–115.1%1–114.1%0–211.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.