First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 8

Spartak Varna–Arda Kardzhali

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 September 2025 at 14:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Spartak, Varna

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Spartak VarnaD. Ivanov (assist: G. Stojanovski)
71'Spartak VarnaBerna (assist: Maksym Kovalyov)
90'Spartak VarnaD. Halachev

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Spartak Varna 1.04 · Arda Kardzhali 1.54. On the pitch: 3-0.

Referee

Volen Chinkov, Bulgaria→

2.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.5%: “Arda Kardzhali to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.04 for Spartak Varna, 1.54 for Arda Kardzhali.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (X2 — draw or Arda Kardzhali win).
These values were computed from 817 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spartak Varna to win24.1%

Draw27.4%

Arda Kardzhali to win48.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Spartak Varna lead at half-time20.6%

Level at half-time41.8%

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time37.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Spartak Varna ahead or level62.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Arda Kardzhali ahead79.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 817 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Spartak Varna: at least 11
Arda Kardzhali: at least 10

Corners

Spartak Varna: at least 3
Arda Kardzhali: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Spartak Varna score1.04

Attack: Spartak Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.54

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%0–110.9%1–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.