First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 7

Arda Kardzhali–Beroe

2–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 31 August 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena Arda, Kerdjali

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'BeroeA. Salido Tajero
35'Arda KardzhaliG. Nikolov
43'BeroeNene (assist: A. Salido Tajero)
45'Arda KardzhaliG. Nikolov (assist: A. Shinyashiki)
57'BeroeV. Valkov · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arda Kardzhali 1.74 · Beroe 0.88. On the pitch: 2-2.

Referee

Nikola Popov, Bulgaria→

5.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.7%: “Arda Kardzhali to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Arda Kardzhali, 0.88 for Beroe.
The highest double chance value is 82.7% (1X — Arda Kardzhali win or draw).
These values were computed from 812 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arda Kardzhali to win57.7%

Draw25.0%

Beroe to win17.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 2–2

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time36.6%

Level at half-time44.4%

Beroe lead at half-time18.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Arda Kardzhali ahead or level81.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Beroe ahead63.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 812 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arda Kardzhali: at least 10
Beroe: at least 12

Corners

Arda Kardzhali: at least 4
Beroe: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.74

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Beroe's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beroe score0.88

Attack: Beroe score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–012.0%2–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.