First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 7

Botev Vratsa–Cherno More Varna

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 29 August 2025 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

49'Botev VratsaV. Naydenov

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Vratsa 0.82 · Cherno More Varna 1.43. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

Georgi Kabakov, Bulgaria→

5.20

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “Cherno More Varna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.82 for Botev Vratsa, 1.43 for Cherno More Varna.
The highest double chance value is 79.9% (X2 — draw or Cherno More Varna win).
These values were computed from 808 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Vratsa to win20.1%

Draw28.7%

Cherno More Varna to win51.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa win or draw48.8%

12 — any result other than a draw71.3%

X2 — draw or Cherno More Varna win79.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time21.2%

Level at half-time46.6%

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time32.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa ahead or level67.8%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or Cherno More Varna ahead78.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 808 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Vratsa: at least 13
Cherno More Varna: at least 12

Corners

Botev Vratsa: at least 4
Cherno More Varna: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Vratsa score0.82

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cherno More Varna score1.43

Attack: Cherno More Varna score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–114.6%1–114.2%0–211.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.