First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 6

Slavia Sofia–Arda Kardzhali

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Monday, 25 August 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Slavia, Sofia

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Slavia SofiaY. Guermouche
23'Slavia SofiaK. Balov

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slavia Sofia 1.32 · Arda Kardzhali 1.47. On the pitch: 2-0.

Referee

Radoslav Gidzhenov, Bulgaria→

6.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Arda Kardzhali to win”. Second comes “Slavia Sofia to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Slavia Sofia, 1.47 for Arda Kardzhali.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 806 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slavia Sofia to win32.8%

Draw27.3%

Arda Kardzhali to win39.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 2–0

Slavia Sofia lead at half-time24.4%

Level at half-time43.2%

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time32.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Slavia Sofia ahead or level67.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Arda Kardzhali ahead75.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 806 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slavia Sofia: at least 12
Arda Kardzhali: at least 10

Corners

Slavia Sofia: at least 4
Arda Kardzhali: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slavia Sofia score1.32

Attack: Slavia Sofia score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.47

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Slavia Sofia's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–29.6%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.