First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 5

Ludogorets–Lokomotiv Sofia

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 August 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad

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What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ludogorets 2.40 · Lokomotiv Sofia 0.45. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

Georgi Kabakov, Bulgaria→

5.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 81.8%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.40 for Ludogorets, 0.45 for Lokomotiv Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 95.7% (1X — Ludogorets win or draw).
These values were computed from 798 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ludogorets to win81.8%

Draw13.8%

Lokomotiv Sofia to win4.3%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ludogorets win or draw95.7%

12 — any result other than a draw86.2%

X2 — draw or Lokomotiv Sofia win18.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (13.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ludogorets lead at half-time64.7%

Level at half-time31.9%

Lokomotiv Sofia lead at half-time3.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Ludogorets ahead or level96.6%

12 — not level at half-time68.1%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Sofia ahead35.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 798 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ludogorets: at least 8
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 11

Corners

Ludogorets: at least 6
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ludogorets score2.40

Attack: Ludogorets score 56% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Sofia concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.40 goals.

How many goals Lokomotiv Sofia score0.45

Attack: Lokomotiv Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–017.3%3–013.9%1–013.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.