First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 2

Botev Vratsa–Ludogorets

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 25 July 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'LudogoretsA. Stoyanov (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Botev Vratsa		Ludogorets
6	Shots	14
1	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
0	Corners	9
1	Offsides	0
26%	Possession	74%
140	Passes	578
81	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Vratsa 0.55 · Ludogorets 2.19. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Botev Vratsa 6 · Ludogorets 14; on target 1 and 5.
Ludogorets kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

V. Zhelezov→

4.53

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.2%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.55 for Botev Vratsa, 2.19 for Ludogorets.
The highest double chance value is 93.3% (X2 — draw or Ludogorets win).
These values were computed from 770 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Vratsa to win6.7%

Draw17.2%

Ludogorets to win76.2%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	9

6	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time8.4%

Level at half-time40.4%

Ludogorets lead at half-time51.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa ahead or level48.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Ludogorets ahead91.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 770 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Vratsa: at least 11Actual: 14
Ludogorets: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Botev Vratsa: at least 4
Ludogorets: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Vratsa score0.55

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ludogorets score2.19

Attack: Ludogorets score 56% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.19 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–216.2%0–113.6%0–311.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.