Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Championship Group - 2

Slavia Praha–Sparta Praha

0–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Technical loss
Venue: Andrův stadion, Olomouc

The match was not played; the result was awarded. With no result produced on the pitch, it is not used to train the model.

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What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slavia Praha 1.75 · Sparta Praha 0.93. On the pitch: 0-3.

Referee

K. Roucek→

3.82

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.5%: “Slavia Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for Slavia Praha, 0.93 for Sparta Praha.
The highest double chance value is 81.5% (1X — Slavia Praha win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,009 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slavia Praha to win56.5%

Draw25.0%

Sparta Praha to win18.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Slavia Praha win or draw81.5%

12 — any result other than a draw75.0%

X2 — draw or Sparta Praha win43.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Slavia Praha lead at half-time39.9%

Level at half-time41.0%

Sparta Praha lead at half-time19.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Slavia Praha ahead or level81.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Sparta Praha ahead60.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1009 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slavia Praha: at least 11
Sparta Praha: at least 11

Corners

Slavia Praha: at least 5
Sparta Praha: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slavia Praha score1.75

Attack: Slavia Praha score 63% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Praha concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.75 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Sparta Praha score0.93

Attack: Sparta Praha score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Slavia Praha concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.93 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–011.2%2–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.