Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Final

Sigma Olomouc–Karviná

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 May 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

26'Sigma OlomoucD. Šturm (assist: Péter Baráth)
29'Sigma OlomoucPéter Baráth (assist: Abdoulaye Sylla)
60'Sigma OlomoucA. Rusek
82'Sigma OlomoucLouis Lurvink (assist: M. Beran)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sigma Olomouc		Karviná
21	Shots	7
10	Shots on target	1
16	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	9
44%	Possession	56%
309	Passes	396
246	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sigma Olomouc 1.64 · Karviná 1.15. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Sigma Olomouc 21 · Karviná 7; on target 10 and 1.
Karviná kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

D. Vokoun→

4.38

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Sigma Olomouc to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Sigma Olomouc, 1.15 for Karviná.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (1X — Sigma Olomouc win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,016 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sigma Olomouc to win48.1%

Draw26.4%

Karviná to win25.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,197 of 4,687 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,773 of 6,688 predictions were correct (56.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sigma Olomouc win or draw74.5%

12 — any result other than a draw73.6%

X2 — draw or Karviná win51.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.4%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Sigma Olomouc lead at half-time40.8%

Level at half-time39.9%

Karviná lead at half-time19.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Sigma Olomouc ahead or level80.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Karviná ahead59.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1016 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sigma Olomouc: at least 11Actual: 17
Karviná: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Sigma Olomouc: at least 5Actual: 6
Karviná: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,890 of 5,366 predictions were correct (53.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 53.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sigma Olomouc score1.64

Attack: Sigma Olomouc score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karviná concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karviná score1.15

Attack: Karviná score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sigma Olomouc's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.4%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1016 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 90 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.