Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Relegation Group - 5

Zlin–Slovácko

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 May 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Letna, Zlin

Goals and red cards

9'ZlinJ. Kolar (assist: D. Machalik)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zlin		Slovácko
6	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
32%	Possession	68%
252	Passes	533
163	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zlin 1.53 · Slovácko 1.13. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Zlin 6 · Slovácko 15; on target 3 and 4.
Slovácko kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

S. Volek→

4.33

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.9%: “Zlin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Zlin, 1.13 for Slovácko.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (1X — Zlin win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,016 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zlin to win45.9%

Draw27.3%

Slovácko to win26.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Zlin win or draw73.2%

12 — any result other than a draw72.7%

X2 — draw or Slovácko win54.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Zlin lead at half-time38.8%

Level at half-time39.3%

Slovácko lead at half-time21.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Zlin ahead or level78.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or Slovácko ahead61.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1016 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zlin: at least 12Actual: 17
Slovácko: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Zlin: at least 4Actual: 3
Slovácko: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zlin score1.53

Attack: Zlin score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slovácko concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slovácko score1.13

Attack: Slovácko score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Zlin concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–110.2%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.