Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Relegation Group - 3

Zlin–Teplice

2–4

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 12 May 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Letna, Zlin

Goals and red cards

5'ZlinD. Machalik (assist: L. Bartosak)
19'ZlinTomáš Poznar (assist: Jakub Černín)
25'TepliceDaniel Mareček
54'TepliceM. Naprstek (assist: Daniel Mareček)
72'TepliceB. Nyarko · red card
81'TepliceM. Radosta

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zlin		Teplice
9	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
385	Passes	355
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zlin 1.34 · Teplice 1.11. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Zlin 9 · Teplice 12; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

D. Cerny→

3.81

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.2%: “Zlin to win”. Second comes “Teplice to win” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Zlin, 1.11 for Teplice.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,010 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zlin to win41.2%

Draw29.2%

Teplice to win29.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	19

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–1

Zlin lead at half-time34.5%

Level at half-time43.0%

Teplice lead at half-time22.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Zlin ahead or level77.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Teplice ahead65.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1010 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zlin: at least 13Actual: 16
Teplice: at least 14Actual: 19

Corners

Zlin: at least 4Actual: 5
Teplice: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zlin score1.34

Attack: Zlin score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Teplice's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Teplice score1.11

Attack: Teplice score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Zlin concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–010.8%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.