Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 27

Bohemians 1905–Sparta Praha

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'Sparta PrahaJohn Mercado · red card
60'Bohemians 1905M. Ristovski
62'Bohemians 1905Lukáš Hůlka

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bohemians 1905		Sparta Praha
12	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
40%	Possession	60%
272	Passes	416
205	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bohemians 1905 0.95 · Sparta Praha 1.67. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Bohemians 1905 12 · Sparta Praha 5; on target 5 and 2.
Sparta Praha kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

K. Roucek→

3.76

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.1%: “Sparta Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.95 for Bohemians 1905, 1.67 for Sparta Praha.
The highest double chance value is 80.0% (X2 — draw or Sparta Praha win).
These values were computed from 997 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bohemians 1905 to win20.0%

Draw25.9%

Sparta Praha to win54.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bohemians 1905 lead at half-time19.3%

Level at half-time42.1%

Sparta Praha lead at half-time38.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Bohemians 1905 ahead or level61.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Sparta Praha ahead80.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 997 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bohemians 1905: at least 11Actual: 15
Sparta Praha: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Bohemians 1905: at least 4Actual: 7
Sparta Praha: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bohemians 1905 score0.95

Attack: Bohemians 1905 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Praha concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sparta Praha score1.67

Attack: Sparta Praha score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Bohemians 1905's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%0–111.4%1–210.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.