Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 30

Hradec Králové–Slavia Praha

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Malšovická Aréna, Hradec Králové

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 14%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Slavia PrahaE. Prekop (penalty)
39'Hradec KrálovéM. van Buren (assist: V. Darida)
88'Slavia PrahaY. Mbodji · red card
90'Hradec KrálovéV. Darida (penalty)
90+2'Slavia PrahaJ. Boril · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hradec Králové		Slavia Praha
8	Shots	21
2	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	10
3	Offsides	0
36%	Possession	64%
247	Passes	428
141	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hradec Králové 0.77 · Slavia Praha 1.85. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Hradec Králové 8 · Slavia Praha 21; on target 2 and 6.
Slavia Praha kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

D. Cerny→

4.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.2%: “Slavia Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.77 for Hradec Králové, 1.85 for Slavia Praha.
The highest double chance value is 86.3% (X2 — draw or Slavia Praha win).
These values were computed from 995 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hradec Králové to win13.7%

Draw23.2%

Slavia Praha to win63.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	2

First half

Actual: 1–1

Hradec Králové lead at half-time17.6%

Level at half-time42.5%

Slavia Praha lead at half-time39.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Hradec Králové ahead or level60.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Slavia Praha ahead82.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 995 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hradec Králové: at least 10Actual: 12
Slavia Praha: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Hradec Králové: at least 4Actual: 2
Slavia Praha: at least 5Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hradec Králové score0.77

Attack: Hradec Králové score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slavia Praha concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slavia Praha score1.85

Attack: Slavia Praha score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Hradec Králové's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–212.8%0–112.8%1–111.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.