Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 30

Dukla Praha–Karviná

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'KarvináLucky Ezeh (assist: E. Ayaosi)
42'KarvináAboubacar Traore (assist: J. Chytry)
63'Dukla PrahaD. Kreiker (assist: M. Cermak)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dukla Praha		Karviná
15	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	8
11	Shots inside the box	8
6	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
281	Passes	390
202	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dukla Praha 1.10 · Karviná 1.47. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Dukla Praha 15 · Karviná 16; on target 6 and 8.
Karviná kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

O. Pechanec→

4.88

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.9%: “Karviná to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Dukla Praha, 1.47 for Karviná.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (X2 — draw or Karviná win).
These values were computed from 989 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dukla Praha to win27.1%

Draw28.0%

Karviná to win44.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Dukla Praha lead at half-time26.1%

Level at half-time42.8%

Karviná lead at half-time31.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Dukla Praha ahead or level68.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Karviná ahead73.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 989 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dukla Praha: at least 11Actual: 17
Karviná: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Dukla Praha: at least 4Actual: 3
Karviná: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dukla Praha score1.10

Attack: Dukla Praha score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Karviná concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karviná score1.47

Attack: Karviná score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dukla Praha's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–110.4%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.