Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 30

Baník Ostrava–Bohemians 1905

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

19'Bohemians 1905M. Ristovski (assist: A. Čermák)
44'Bohemians 1905J. Matoušek (assist: M. Kadlec)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Baník Ostrava		Bohemians 1905
10	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
413	Passes	267
341	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Baník Ostrava 1.48 · Bohemians 1905 1.20. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Baník Ostrava 10 · Bohemians 1905 10; on target 5 and 4.
Baník Ostrava kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

O. Berka→

3.82

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.0%: “Baník Ostrava to win”. Second comes “Bohemians 1905 to win” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Baník Ostrava, 1.20 for Bohemians 1905.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 989 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Baník Ostrava to win43.0%

Draw27.6%

Bohemians 1905 to win29.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Baník Ostrava lead at half-time33.4%

Level at half-time44.4%

Bohemians 1905 lead at half-time22.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Baník Ostrava ahead or level77.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Bohemians 1905 ahead66.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 989 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Baník Ostrava: at least 9Actual: 10
Bohemians 1905: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Baník Ostrava: at least 5Actual: 3
Bohemians 1905: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Baník Ostrava score1.48

Attack: Baník Ostrava score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bohemians 1905's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bohemians 1905 score1.20

Attack: Bohemians 1905 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Baník Ostrava's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.9%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.