Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 30

Zlin–Teplice

3–2

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Letna, Zlin

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'ZlinJakub Černín (assist: M. Pisoja)
9'TepliceDaniel Mareček (assist: M. Pulkrab)
36'ZlinCletus Nombil
44'ZlinTomáš Poznar (assist: D. Machalik)
50'TepliceM. Bilek (penalty)
82'TepliceEmmanuel Fully · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zlin		Teplice
12	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
291	Passes	349
197	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zlin 1.30 · Teplice 1.07. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Zlin 12 · Teplice 12; on target 5 and 3.
Teplice kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

L. Nehasil→

3.43

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Zlin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Zlin, 1.07 for Teplice.
The highest double chance value is 70.6% (1X — Zlin win or draw).
These values were computed from 989 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zlin to win40.9%

Draw29.6%

Teplice to win29.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	23

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 3–1

Zlin lead at half-time30.4%

Level at half-time45.3%

Teplice lead at half-time24.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Zlin ahead or level75.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Teplice ahead69.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 989 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zlin: at least 13Actual: 13
Teplice: at least 13Actual: 23

Corners

Zlin: at least 4Actual: 4
Teplice: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zlin score1.30

Attack: Zlin score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Teplice's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Teplice score1.07

Attack: Teplice score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Zlin's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–011.3%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.