Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 29

FK Jablonec–Baník Ostrava

4–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'FK JablonecDominik Hollý (assist: L. Jawo)
24'Baník OstravaO. Kričfaluši (assist: D. Planka)
41'FK JablonecN. Okeke (assist: V. Chanturishvili)
85'FK JablonecEbrima Singhateh (assist: David Puškáč)
90'FK JablonecS. Nebyla (assist: J. Chramosta)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Jablonec		Baník Ostrava
10	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	4
3	Offsides	5
44%	Possession	56%
289	Passes	370
197	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Jablonec 1.60 · Baník Ostrava 1.02. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots FK Jablonec 10 · Baník Ostrava 11; on target 5 and 4.
Baník Ostrava kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

J. Benes→

5.00

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.4%: “FK Jablonec to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for FK Jablonec, 1.02 for Baník Ostrava.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (1X — FK Jablonec win or draw).
These values were computed from 981 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Jablonec to win50.4%

Draw26.8%

Baník Ostrava to win22.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

FK Jablonec lead at half-time37.0%

Level at half-time42.5%

Baník Ostrava lead at half-time20.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Jablonec ahead or level79.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Baník Ostrava ahead63.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 981 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Jablonec: at least 10Actual: 18
Baník Ostrava: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

FK Jablonec: at least 4Actual: 4
Baník Ostrava: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Jablonec score1.60

Attack: FK Jablonec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Baník Ostrava's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Baník Ostrava score1.02

Attack: Baník Ostrava score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Jablonec concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–010.9%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.